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Ethiopia’s Dilemma: The Intersection of Famine, Civil War, and Regional Stability

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Ethiopia has long been a country marked by turmoil, grappling with famine for the past five decades and currently embroiled in a civil war that has witnessed horrific acts, including genocide againstTigray people. The complexity of Ethiopia’s internal struggles is further compounded by its relationship with neighbouring Somalia, particularly in light of Somalia’s recent decisions regarding the fight against the Al-Shabaab terrorist group.

I-   A Legacy of Hardship

Famine in Ethiopia has roots in various factors, including climatic challenges, political instability, and economic mismanagement. The crisis has persisted for decades, resulting in widespread suffering and displacement. In recent years, the situation has worsened with the outbreak of civil war, particularly in the Tigray region, where state forces have been accused of committing atrocities against civilians. This internal conflict has diverted attention and resources away from the pressing needs of the population, further exacerbating the humanitarian crisis.

II-    Somalia’s Sovereignty and Security Decisions

Amidst Ethiopia’s struggles, Somalia has sought to regain control over its territory and combat the persistent threat posed by Al-Shabaab, a militant group that has destabilized the region for years. In making decisions about security collaborations, Somalia has the right to choose its partners, reflecting its sovereignty. The recent proposal to invite new nations (Egypt, Djibouti, Eriteria, Ruwanda) to support its efforts against Al-Shabaab marks a significant shift in Somalia’s approach to security, aiming to finally eliminate the root causes of instability.

III-   Ethiopia’s Reaction: A Distrustful Stance

Ethiopia’s reaction to Somalia’s strategic decisions has been marked by anxiety and suspicion. For years, the Ethiopian military operated under the guise of contributing to AMISOM (African Union Mission in Somalia) and ATMIS (African Transition Mission in Somalia), yet many believe that Ethiopia harbored its own agenda, seeking to exert influence over Somalia’s internal affairs. This history of military incursions and alleged violations of Somalia’s territorial integrity has created a deep-seated distrust.

With Somalia now asserting its autonomy in the fight against terrorism, Ethiopia appears to be panicking, expressing concerns and criticisms regarding Somalia’s choice of partners. This reaction is indicative of Ethiopia’s fear of losing influence in the region, as well as a reflection of its own unresolved internal issues.

IV-   The Call for Internal Focus

Rather than meddling in Somalia’s internal affairs, it is imperative for Ethiopia to focus on addressing its own challenges. The country must prioritize healing from its civil war, combatting famine, and mending the societal divisions that have deepened over the years. Ethiopia’s stability is crucial not only for its citizens but also for the broader Horn of Africa region.

Somalia, as a sovereign nation, has the right to determine its path forward, including the selection of international partners in its fight against terrorism. The ongoing struggle against Al-Shabaab is not merely a national concern but a regional one, affecting the security and stability of neighbouring countries. For Ethiopia to remain a constructive member of the international community, it must respect Somalia’s autonomy and cease its interference in its neighbour’s internal matters.

Conclusion

Ethiopia’s historical and ongoing struggles with famine and civil conflict have created a complex backdrop to its relations with Somalia. As Somalia takes bold steps to secure its future by addressing the Al-Shabaab threat, Ethiopia must reassess its priorities. Rather than reacting from a place of fear and distrust, Ethiopia should focus on its internal challenges and support regional stability through cooperation and respect for sovereignty. Only then can both nations work towards a peaceful and prosperous future in the Horn of Africa. 

By: PROF. BURAALE XINIIN

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